The Future in Numbers

“We can’t predict the future” is an oft repeated mantra, but is it really true? Many of tomorrow’s events and future developments are actually hiding in plain sight, hiding behind numbers that we don’t realise the importance or impact of. To illustrate this point, let us look at three areas (Demographic Change, Climate Change, and Education) and see what some underlying numbers can tell us about the future.

Starting with Demographic Change, we see that the median age for Africa is 18.8[1] years of age. This means that there are (based on United Nations latest estimate[2]) roughly 750 million older than 18.8 years and roughly 750 million younger than 18.8 years. So far so good, but here comes one of the kickers: Most democracies in Africa have a minimum voting age of 18 years,[3] meaning that almost half of the African population are too young to vote, thus being unable to influence policies that affect their future. In addition, the ruling elites tend to be a majority of older men, which is a very small percentage of Africa’s population[4], further possibly distorting governments’ required focus on future challenges and opportunities for the younger generations. A country’s (or a continent’s) demographic profile not only affects democracy, it also impacts businesses, education systems, housing markets, a country’s competitiveness, and so on.

Going over to the next area, Climate Change, we have some amazing, and very scary, numbers to work with here. Let’s start with 1.5°C which is the Paris Agreement’s target for global warming vis a vis pre-industrial levels[5]. In alignment to the agreement, is the “net-zero by 2050” which aims for countries to be carbon emission neutral by 2050[6]. Even though these numbers and targets seem lofty and political, they do have a direct impact on our daily lives and businesses through government policies, laws, subsidies to certain industries, help to the developing world to mitigate climate change effects, etc. The other side of climate change, we see in rising sea levels[7] (about 20 cm (or 8-9 inches) since 1900 and accelerating the last decades) and that the 10 warmest years since 1850 have all happened in the last decade[8]. The effects of these are more volatile weather patters, more severe droughts, more severe storms, and lethal heatwaves. This results in higher food prices, higher insurance premiums, unstoppable migration patterns, and that some island nations are literally sinking below the ocean surface. Climate change is here to stay, and we need to figure out how to mitigate the effects on our lives, our businesses, our suppliers, and our customers.

Lastly, let’s look at some numbers around Education. World Economic Forum estimates that 1 billion people needs to be reskilled by 2030 to remain relevant in a world where 23% of jobs will be affected by automation or AI[9] [10]. This reskilling is aimed at people already in a job today, but this also indicates that the curriculum at schools and universities will also need to be changed to ensure that graduates have the skills needed for the 21^st century. The undertaking is massive and for some, especially the older generations, the new tech coming and the prospect of being forced to learn new skills, are frightening. The skills of the future is typically soft skills[11] like communication, leadership, collaboration, analytical thinking, critical thinking, and similar. These skills will enable us, our colleagues, and our staff to remain relevant and is an opportunity for education institutions while also requiring careful resource planning by businesses.

These are just three examples of areas or industries where the signals of future change are hidden in visible numbers. Almost every industry or area have their future development hidden behind visible numbers and if you are interested in exploring these further, please get in touch with me.

1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1226158/median-age-of-the-population-of-africa/
2. https://www.uneca.org/stories/%28blog%29-as-africa%E2%80%99s-population-crosses-1.5-billion%2C-the-demographic-window-is-opening-getting#:~:text=Africa%20has%20been%20at%20the,touch%202.5%20billion%20by%202050.
3. https://aceproject.org/epic-en/CDTable?view=country&question=VR001
4. https://www.populationpyramid.net/africa/2023/
5. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement
6. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition
7. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3012/nasa-led-study-reveals-the-causes-of-sea-level-rise-since-1900/
8. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record
9. https://www.weforum.org/impact/reskilling-revolution-reaching-600-million-people-by-2030/
10. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/04/growth-summit-2023-by-2030-1-billion-people-will-be-equipped-with-the-skills-of-the-future/
11. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023/