2024 is drawing to an exciting close and the predictions for 2025 are coming from all corners of society, covering subjects such as geopolitics, AI, advances in medicine, education, technology, and business, to just mention a few. Technology is an enormously popular area and we read about its impacts on everything from sleep to agriculture, from mental health to space, and everything in between.
With that in mind, writing yet another “Future of Tech” article might seem pointless… but I feel we need to take a step back (or rather forward) and get a different perspective on the ongoing tech revolution, a perspective that puts humans in the centre while looking 10 or 15 years into the future.
So, let’s look at “The Future of Tech – from the Future!”
Ever since ChatGPT exploded into everyday conversations in November 2022, in my conversations with executives and employees, reading articles, and listening to podcasts and talks, I’ve picked up that people in general have some concerns about where the current technology (r)evolution is heading. These concerns, I’ve broadly grouped into three categories: ‘Responsible Tech’, ‘Safe Tech’, and ‘Environmentally Good Tech’.
Concerns about technology evolution isn’t new, on the contrary, we’ve all seen it before: When the PC arrived in the 1970s, it promised to change how we worked (and thus the world). When the internet went mainstream in the 1990s, it would save the planet, take our jobs away, and revolutionize how we work. Same with the smartphone, blockchain, and now Artificial Intelligence (AI). Is quantum computing next or will we finally harness fusion power? Each new technology wave comes with (more or less) the same promises and threats (change the world, save the planet, replace human workers). But no technology ‘just suddenly arrives’, it’s been tinkered with in labs, discussed in research articles, at conferences, and among early enthusiasms for years, if not for decades. For example, ‘Artificial Intelligence’ was coined by computer scientist John McCarthy in 1956 at a Darthmouth College conference… that’s close to 70 years ago!
So when we look back at these various technology waves, we can evaluate if they resulted in good or bad products and services, if the technologies delivered on their promises or not, and if humans replaced or not.
Looking back at old product or service also eliminates the current hype, the emotional, and wildly divergent, opinions. Today we take access to the internet for granted, we don’t think twice about opening a laptop in a café, and we discuss crypto currencies’ rise and fall over dinner. The same will happen with AI and Generative AI; In 10 to 15 years the technology will probably be mainstream, its promises and threats mostly played out, and we will be upset about some other new technology that will take our jobs, change how we work, and save the planet!
With this in mind, let’s try to imagine what people from 15 years into the future (in 2040) think about the technologies, products, and services that we are currently using. To help them on the way, let’s look at some of the concerns around Responsible Tech, Safe Tech, and Environmentally Good Tech, that we have today.
Responsible Tech
We want technology to make the world a better place. We want to believe that tomorrow will be a better day, not just for the lucky few, but for everyone. This implies that we want to buy from companies that think and care about adding value to all its stakeholders.
We want to use products and services that resonate with our values and that we feel are developed to solve real problems, not just making a profit.
We expect companies to be responsible not just in intent but also in actions. We want them to take responsibility and corrective actions if something goes wrong and not hide behind laws, policies, and opaque corporate structures.
Safe Tech
Products and services, and using them, should be safe. With more and more activities happening online, we want our data to be safe and private. We are tired of online scams, identity theft, hacking, spam, and of companies making billions of selling their customers’ (i.e. our) usage data and behaviour.
We want companies to take an active role in making their services free from cyber bullying, divisive rhetoric, hate speech, and unsolicited advertising. And we want these products and services to be safe not only for us adults but also for our children to use.
We want to engage with systems and communities (online as well as in the real world) that offer us safety and trust.
Environmentally Good Tech
We are becoming more aware of our products and services’ extensive need for natural resources, and we are concerned about its sustainability. We are concerned about the increasing pollution and about the wasteful use of products.
We are also concerned about our impact on nature, the impact we have on the biosphere, and its ability to sustain us.
Individually, we are concerned about what kind of planet we’ll leave to our children and grandchildren.
Product & Business Model Design
Addressing these concerns will probably impact the future of the product or service in a positive manner, but it has to be intentional from the company. The concerns need to be addressed in the design of the product or service AND in the design of the business model behind it. Adding recyclability or adding a safety measure as an afterthought won’t cut it.
Take a common household appliances as an example. They contain several types of metals and plastics, some recyclable and others not. But due to how they are fitted together, it’s sometimes impossible to separate the recyclable items from the non-recyclable ones. To avoid this problem, circularity and recyclability must be part of and a requirement for the product design.
In the same vein, adding an age restriction to a social media product, doesn’t solve the potential harmful or unsafe aspects of the product. And can a product, who’s business model relies on selling users’ health data to insurance or pharma companies, be regarded as responsible and safe?
Conclusions
The concerns about current tech and its trajectory are complex and not easy to address, they very often contain business and ethical dilemmas that can’t be solved with an ‘add on’ solution.
Ensuring that products and services are responsible, safe, and environmentally good start at the product, service, and business model design, i.e. built in from day one!
Some links to dive deeper…
When was the Internet invented? A brief history of the Internet.
Appendix I: A Short History of AI | One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100)
Google-Funded AI Coaxed a Troubled Teenager to Start Cutting Himself, Lawsuit Claims
San Francisco tech startup advertises replacing people with ‘AI employees’Hawk Tuah Girl’s Response to Questions About Her Alleged Crypto Scam: “Anywho, I’m Going to Go to Bed”
Sustainable and inclusive business – IMD business school for management and leadership courses